In Mark Twain’s book Life on the Mississippi, he made a strange prediction about the future of the Mississippi River. The river is extremely crooked with many curves. From time-to-time “cut-offs” take place in which the river changes its course from a wide bend to a straighter path. As a result the length of the Mississippi is getting shorter. Twain gave some figures: “The Mississippi between Cairo (Illinois) and New Orleans was 1215 miles long 176 years ago. It was 1180 miles after the cut-off of 1722…..its length is only 973 miles at present (1875). Any calm person who is not blind or idiotic can see that 710 years from now the lower Mississippi will only be about 2 miles long.”
What's wrong with his reasoning?
Similair example of a jump to conclusions?
+23254 Using a set of data to find a pattern of numbers to predict the future can lead to wrong conclusions. This is especially true, if the pattern is used to predict something in the far future.
For instance, predicting weather can be done quite accurately for the near future: tomorrow, the next day, maybe even next week. But he father into the future, the less accurate this prediction becomes.
Another problem arises when the wrong type of math formula is used; a straight line may fairly accurately describe what happened last year, but a curved line may be needed to describe what will happen the next few years.
+23254 Using a set of data to find a pattern of numbers to predict the future can lead to wrong conclusions. This is especially true, if the pattern is used to predict something in the far future.
For instance, predicting weather can be done quite accurately for the near future: tomorrow, the next day, maybe even next week. But he father into the future, the less accurate this prediction becomes.
Another problem arises when the wrong type of math formula is used; a straight line may fairly accurately describe what happened last year, but a curved line may be needed to describe what will happen the next few years.
