GingerAle
14-oct-2018

#1**0 **

(Assuming the player pays nothing to play)

Black Ball probability 0.80

$1 Ball drawn probability 0.75 Expected Value = 0.80 * 0.75 * 1 = $0.60

$7 Ball drawn probability 0.25 Expected Value = 0.80 *0.25 * 8 = $1.40

Sum $2.00

White Ball probability 0.20

$8 Ball drawn probability 0.889 Expected Value = 0.20 * 0.8889 * 1 = $1.42

$500 Ball drawn probability 0.111 Expected Value = 0.20 * 0.1111 * 500 = $11.11

Sum $12.53

Sum of expected values 2.00 + 12.53 = 14.53

**Expected win per play $14.53**

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I like to play the ponies. It’s a great venue to apply statistics and probability, and it is a lot of fun. It’s even more fun when you win more often. A basic understanding of statistics helps to separate the whinnies from the neighs.

When the Troll-Master was tutoring me in statistics, he sent me links to two vids that parody the sport.

Classic Spike Jones with one of his many classical music parodies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BavRrRNvz8g

This one is contemporary and quite funny. Note that it has “adult” language. I’ve heard variations of this many times, but I never realized it was a horse race until I saw this.

GingerAle18-sep-2016